US politics has always been a love of mine and I have followed it closely since the day JFK died. I find the US system fascinating and fun, and am amazed at how a democracy still works with a country of 350 million people. I was asked my view of the US Republican primaries and so I will blog on this as time moves on toward November 6, 2012 when Americans go to the polls to elect their President.
Because President Obama is in his first term, there will be no legitimate contest for the Democrats. He will run for President for a second term and he will most likely win. Please understand, I am not a supporter of any US party. I am simply an observer from the cheap seats with a fascination and an opinion. So, for what its worth here are the three reasons I think Obama gets in again.
1. The economy is improving – with 3 million jobs created, and an unemployment rate of 8.5% the Democrats can talk a good story about economic recovery. Even though 8 million jobs were lost, they will blame that on the outgoing Bush administration from 2008, once the the national campaign starts this summer.
2. The Republicans will get blamed for nothing getting done – Obama’s Presidential victory in 2008 was accompanied by majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Because of that, Congress passed 2 significant health care reforms, “the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (March 20, 2010) and the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act” (March 23, 2010), which was the main platform of his election campaign. In the 2010 midterms, he got roasted for doing it, just like Tommy Douglas did, when he drove universal health care in Canada in the 60’s. Also, in 2010 the economy was in the tank, so they lost control of the house in the mid term election, and everything that Obama has wanted to do since then has stalled. But he’s got the troops out of Iraq, his health care bill is law, the economy is improving and people will forget 2 years ago and blame the stalling of action on the partisan republican house. It happened before with Reagan and Clinton and I predict it will happen here.
3. The Republicans have no compelling candidate – I’ll blog more on this. The Republicans are decimated as far as candidates that can captivate the electorate. Mitt Romney is the clear front runner after the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. Second is Newt Gingrich. Newt scares people. Ron Paul is 3rd. He scares more people. Rick Santorum is 4th. He scares me! And they are beating the daylights out of each other in the primaries while the Democrats are silent. Its a steep hill to climb.
More after the South Carolina primary.